Gaps and Gap Analysis 缺口的应用（独家资料不断更新中！）5261 1
Gaps may serve one of three purposes:
They are used to spot the beginning of a move;
Gaps are used to measure a move;
And Gaps are used to signal the end of a move.
four types of Gaps:
Common or temporary gaps;
Measuring or runaway gaps;
Common or Temporary Gaps
The most frequently occurring Gap is the Common Gap… (Obviously!). When this Gap occurs because of a slight change on psychology, traders expect it to soon be filled. Once a gap is filled, it no longer has significance in terms of analysis or forecasting.
A Common Gap tends to occur frequently in a trading range or price congestion area. All of the congestion formations which I have illustrated (Wave 2’s, Wave 4’s, Flags, Triangles, etc.) regularly contain Common Gaps. This is because activity in these patterns tends to be concentrated near to the top and bottom edges of the pattern, i.e. the formation’s trendlines.
While a market is in between a congestion’s trendlines, it is in much of a "no-man’s land". Therefore, it is easy to see why Gaps develop frequently within such areas.
Because this is the most common type of gap, it is the one I have found to be quite valid. It obeys the rule that "gaps are often filled". When I see a gap in a congestion area, I will often wait for prices to come back and "fill the gap" rather than enter a trade.
The forecasting significance of Common Gaps is practically nil. They have some use simply because they help to recognise an area pattern. That is, they imply that the congestion formation is in the process of construction.
In congestion areas, there may be as many as 5 or 10 Gaps. If the market fails to fill this gap after a couple of weeks, this confirms a Breakaway Gap (see below) and one can then think about riding the trend.
A Breakaway Gap appears in connection with a price congestion area, but it develops at the completion of the formation in the move which breaks prices away. Any breakout through a horizontal pattern boundary, such as the top of an ascending Triangle, is likely to be attended by a Gap. In fact, it is safe to say that most of them are.
Continuation, Runaway and Measuring Gap
A Continuation or Runaway Gap is less frequent in its appearance. But they can be significant in that they can provide some clues to forecast a probable end of the trending move. For this reason Continuation or Runaway Gaps are sometimes called Measuring Gaps.
As opposed to the Common Gap or the Breakaway Gap, which form in or around an area of congestion, a Runaway Gap is not associated with area patterns. It occurs in the course of rapid, near-vertical advance or decline.
Supposedly, the Runaway Gap occurs around the halfway point of a price move, between the beginning of the trend move (e.g. the start of Wave 1) and the end of the move (e.g. the end of Wave 5). Therefore, measuring the height of price action between the start of a trend and the Runaway Gap two can predict the end of the trend.
However, although this idea can HELP to forecast the length of a trend, I have found that this technique does not work as consistently as some of my other forecasting techniques. But if the Gap-measuring method predicts a similar end as my other techniques, it adds weight to the likelihood of a top/bottom at this price.
The Breakaway Gap signals the start of a move; the Runaway Gap marks its rapid continuation (supposedly around the half-way point of the move); an Exhaustion gap shows signs of the market sputtering to an end.
Exhaustion Gaps are associated with rapid advances or declines at the end of price trends.
Though prices may go higher after an exhaustion gap at the top, the rally will not last long before the market dies.
Exhaustion Gaps (red rectangles) show a final strong burst to a new high or low. If the gap is filled, it is obviously NOT a Runaway Gap and is likely to be an Exhaustion Gap.
The Island Reversal
The Island Reversal pattern is uncommon and in itself is not of great significance in the sense of denoting a long term top or bottom. But it does, as a rule, send prices back for a complete retracement of the minor move that preceded it.
An island usually occurs at the end of an Exhaustion Gap and could be viewed as forming its own narrow trading range at the top of the reversal. The island can last for only a single day, in which event, it usually takes the shape of one of the reversal bar shapes given above (Test, Key Reversal, Shooting Star).
Or the Island may be made up of several days or weeks of minor fluctuations of a congestion area. The Gaps at either end of the Island occur at approximately the same level so that the whole area stands out as an Island on the chart, isolated by the Gaps from the rest of price action.
The reasons why Islands develop – in other words, why Gaps do repeat at the same price level – are usually because prices can move and repeat through a wide range where little or no orders have been placed in the past; where previous owners have no vested interest and where there is no support/resistance from previous price action.
[ 本帖最后由 独立投资者 于 2007-5-13 12:25 编辑 ]